The McDonnell Group

You want it when?

ATLANTA - Mar 18, 2010 - Anyone who read the early 20th Century writer Hugh Lofting’s adventures of Dr. Doolittle remembers the pushmi-pullyu, a four-legged cross between a gazelle and unicorn (more famously depicted as a two headed llama in the Rex Harrison movie) with a head on both ends.  Its mobility was often compromised by either end pushing or pulling in opposite directions.

That image came to mind after reading a Microsoft press release with results of its survey of utilities for their progress rolling out smart grid technologies.  The gist of the story is that few utilities are far along at all and that current technologies don’t adequately support the types of interactivity envisioned for the smart grid.

No surprise there, looking at where we are now and the hurdles to overcome, starting with the historical, slow-paced nature of the utility industry and its installed asset base.  Relatively young IT technologies meant to enable the smart grid are only recently getting the kinds of development and deployments necessary for utility applications.  A down economy has regulators, city councils, and cooperative boards particularly sensitive to investments that will increase energy bills for already strapped consumers.  Energy management hardware necessary for homes and businesses to participate is just starting to hit the market.

The question is how soon does anyone expect a massive overhaul of the U.S. power grid to happen?

Even with adequate push (regulation, investment) and pull (increased usage, federal subsidies), making any serious dent in an effort as big as the original Rural Electrification Program of the 1930’s will take some time.  Authoritative voices use the Internet analogy – which practically happened overnight - to describe transforming the grid, but that will require a lot more than switches and routers.  The necessary broadband infrastructure in the U.S. doesn’t exist yet, not even for the telecommunications industry.  Funding for modernized substations, fully developed energy storage, right-of-way for new transmission lines serving renewables – all of these investments or developments are still years in the making.

Sure, the Internet changed society.  There was plenty of push and pull to join the online world but participation was, and still is, voluntary and fairly cheap.  Change of the sort that’s coming with the smart grid will impact everyone whether they like it or not.  Thus far some rate payers haven’t been happy with furtive smart grid initiatives to roll out advanced meters, first by PG&E in California and most recently by Oncor in Texas.  Some customers saw electricity bills skyrocket after the cutover. They are asking if the new technology is bad or if the old technology did not reflect true energy use. Regardless, perception can create reality.

As Dr. Doolittle talked to Gub-Gub, Dab-Dab, Chee-Chee and the rest of the menagerie, so too will the utilities need to talk to customers in their individual languages about their specific needs.

Phil Carson of Intelligent Utility Magazine probably characterized the situation best in commenting on the Oncor smart meter imbroglio by saying that mistrust of institutions is at an all-time high while critical thinking is in short supply during this recession.   Real or imagined, perceptions and behaviors will have to be overcome.  When a full economic recovery takes hold years from now, perhaps then we can start the clock on the smart grid.

Even then, the pushmi-pullyu effect will always be there to temper the speed of transformation.